What 2022 taught us
Three years ago this upcoming March, the whole World began shutting down. Since then, our focus has been inward and hoping to keep functioning in a rational manner. Unfortunately, there seems to be no compelling evidence that this chaos is subsiding. With all that said how do we wrap up the more recent twelve months of 2022?
GENERAL PRINCIPLES:
First, you and I are long-term, goal focused, plan-driven equity investors. I believe that lifetime investment success comes from acting continuously on our goals and plan. Likewise, I believe substandard returns, and even lifetime investment failure, come from reacting to current events.
The unforeseen and indeed unforeseeable economic market, political and geopolitical chaos of these past three years since the onset of the pandemic demonstrates conclusively that the economy can never be consistently forecast nor the market consistently timed.
Therefore, I believe that the most reliable way to capture the full return of the market is to ride out the frequent but historically always temporary declines regardless of how long they become.
These will continue to be the bedrock convictions that inform our investment policy, as we pursue your most important financial goals together.
CURRENT OBSERVATIONS:
Unrelieved chaos continued through 2022. The central drama of the year—and, it seems likely, of the coming year—was the Federal Reserves belated but aggressive efforts to bring inflation under control.
Ironically since the onset of the pandemic early in 2020, the market managed to close out 2022, somewhat higher than it was at the end of 2019 just prior to March 2020 (3,840 versus 3,231, a gain of 16 %).
If anything, this tends to validate our core investment strategy over these three years, which- simply stated- has been: stand fast, tune out the noise and continue to work your long-term plan. Needless to say, that continues to be my recommendation, and in the strongest possible terms.
The burning question of the hour seems to be whether and to what extent the Fed, in its inflation-fighting zeal, might tip the economy into recession at some point—if it hasn’t already done so. Over the coming year, the way this plays out may determine the near-term trend of equity prices. My position continues to be that the outcome is simply unknowable and that one cannot make rational investment policy/decisions out of an unknowable.
That said, I continue to believe strongly that whatever it takes to put out the inflationary fire will be well worth it. Inflation is a cancer of the worst kind that affects everyone in our society; if recession proves to be the painful chemotherapy required to destroy the cancer, then so be it.
Although this may be hard to remember every time the market gyrates (and financial media shrieks) over some meaningless monthly economic news, you and I are not investing in the macroeconomy. Our portfolios largely consist of the ownership of enduringly successful companies- businesses that are even now refining their strategies opportunistically to meet the needs and wants of an 8-billion-person World. I like what we own.
As I always say—but can never say enough—thank you for being my client. It is a genuine privilege to serve you.